Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Over |
| Money | ARIZ -125 IU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +14 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | IU -3.4 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IU -3.1 (+17.1) | 157.9 (+6.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IU -1.9 (+15.9) | 153.0 (+11.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IU -3.8 (+17.8) | 156.5 (+7.5) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IU -2.8 (+16.8) | 157.0 (+7.0) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-4 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#24) | 16.4 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.60 (#20) | 2.58 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#31) | 3.32 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.612 (#33) | 0.578 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | IU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.2% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.3% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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