Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | GB +250 KC -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GB +6 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | KC -6.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -6.1 (+12.1) | 129.6 (+4.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -7.2 (+13.2) | 128.5 (+5.5) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -5.3 (+11.3) | 128.2 (+5.8) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -4.9 (+10.9) | 129.7 (+4.3) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | KC 64 – 55 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GB | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 7-11 |
| Home | 2-10 | 6-8 |
| Away | 1-17 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L7 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.3 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -16.2 (#358) | -4.5 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.08 (#350) | -0.51 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.59 (#352) | -1.07 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#323) | 0.507 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GB | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.3% | 23.6% |
| REB / G | 28.1 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.7% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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