Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -333 NAVY +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | TOW -6.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -6.4 (-8.4) | 139.4 (+0.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -7.2 (-9.2) | 135.0 (+5.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -5.3 (-7.3) | 141.1 (-1.1) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -5.6 (-7.6) | 141.4 (-1.4) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2021 | TOW 69 – 52 NAVY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-2 | 9-6 |
| Away | 8-7 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 65.3 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#112) | 2.4 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#50) | 0.46 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.54 (#52) | 0.32 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#95) | 0.524 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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