Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
| Money | NAVY +105 TOW -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +17 | 121 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -5.1 (-22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -4.8 (-21.8) | 134.5 (-13.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -5.3 (-22.3) | 130.3 (-9.3) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -5.8 (-22.8) | 135.1 (-14.1) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -5.0 (-22.0) | 136.0 (-15.0) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | NAVY 71 – 69 TOW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 12-2 |
| Away | 11-5 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 62.4 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#75) | 6.0 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#77) | 0.87 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#77) | 1.20 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#106) | 0.539 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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