Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | MRST +150 BU -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BU +2 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -2.4 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.4 (+18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -3.6 (-5.6) | 131.0 (+11.0) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.5 (-4.5) | 129.8 (+12.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -3.2 (-5.2) | 129.7 (+12.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -3.3 (-5.3) | 129.8 (+12.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2021 | MRST 84 – 79 BU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-10 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#260) | -1.9 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#214) | -0.79 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#234) | -1.24 (#258) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#254) | 0.468 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.9% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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