Betting Lines
| Spread | CLEM -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | CLEM -213 LUC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +18 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | CLEM -9.9 (-27.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLEM -8.7 (-26.7) | 139.1 (-5.1) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLEM -7.1 (-25.1) | 137.8 (-3.8) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLEM -7.4 (-25.4) | 139.5 (-5.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLEM -7.5 (-25.5) | 141.0 (-7.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLEM | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 15-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#90) | -5.0 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#77) | -0.91 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#54) | -1.28 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#56) | 0.457 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLEM | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 42.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 26.1% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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