Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -300 TAR +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +26 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -8.6 (+17.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-8.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -8.4 (+17.6) | 136.2 (-12.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -8.7 (+17.3) | 133.6 (-9.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -8.6 (+17.4) | 134.5 (-10.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -9.6 (+16.4) | 134.7 (-10.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCF 66 – 51 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#85) | 2.1 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#112) | 0.45 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#90) | 0.59 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#96) | 0.541 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 36.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 37.5% |
Game Analysis
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