Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -24.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -20000 TAR +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +15 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -25.0 (-10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -21.6 (-6.6) | 140.3 (-23.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -20.9 (-5.9) | 139.7 (-22.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -19.1 (-4.1) | 138.6 (-21.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -16.8 (-1.8) | 139.1 (-22.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | UCF 75 – 49 TAR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 60.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#109) | -16.8 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#53) | -1.88 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.76 (#54) | -3.56 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.624 (#32) | 0.445 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TAR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 38.0% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 27.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 29.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 28.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 61.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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