Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | USU -350 LMU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +12 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USU -7.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.3 (+6.7) | 156.5 (-10.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -6.9 (+5.1) | 152.8 (-6.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -5.7 (+6.3) | 156.3 (-10.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -4.8 (+7.2) | 154.8 (-8.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 73.9 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#34) | 4.4 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#6) | 1.47 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.27 (#6) | 1.87 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.702 (#2) | 0.581 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | LMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 44.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 75.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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