Free Nelson Mandela! "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
Ellis T. Johnson Arena · December 11, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MORE -1.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money MORE -110 / ETSU +110
Model Predictions
Spread Total MORE win
Actual MORE +4 118 Won
Massey MORE -2.7 (+1.3)
Massey Totals 129.6 (-11.6)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 97%
Efficiency Plus ML MORE -2.9 (+1.1) 132.8 (-14.8) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML MORE -2.8 (+1.2) 133.7 (-15.7) 56%
Baseline ML MORE -2.5 (+1.5) 134.3 (-16.3) 53%
Baseline Plus ML MORE -2.6 (+1.4) 133.5 (-15.5) 53%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 22, 2025 ETSU 7762 MORE
Dec 11, 2021 ETSU 8275 MORE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MORE ETSU
Overall 22-12 12-20
Conference 14-4 8-10
Home 14-2 7-9
Away 8-9 4-9
Neutral 0-1 1-2
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.2 68.0
Avg Pts Against 68.2 69.5
Massey -9.0 (#322) -6.4 (#288)
Bradley-Terry -1.29 (#292) -2.82 (#346)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.75 (#289) -3.92 (#345)
RPI 0.463 (#236) 0.345 (#356)
Shooting & Four Factors MORE ETSU
FG% 35.2% 44.0%
3PT% 26.4% 28.9%
REB / G 34.7 35.0
OREB / G 9.7 10.1
AST / TO 0.63 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 41.0% 49.2%
TOV% 21.8% 21.2%
ORB% 25.6% 29.6%
FT Rate 21.3% 23.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.4% 52.9%
Opp TOV% 15.0% 19.8%
DRB% 75.4% 76.3%
Opp FT Rate 21.6% 18.3%

Game Analysis

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