Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -750 MORE +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -13.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -11.1 (+3.9) | 145.7 (-6.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -11.9 (+3.1) | 145.4 (-6.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -12.3 (+2.7) | 145.1 (-6.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -12.0 (+3.0) | 144.0 (-5.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2022 | MORE 61 – 57 ETSU |
| Dec 11, 2021 | ETSU 82 – 75 MORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#152) | -6.1 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#151) | -1.13 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#167) | -1.39 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#195) | 0.471 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 36.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 16.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 55.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.7% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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