Betting Lines
| Spread | STMN -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Over |
| Money | IDST +105 STMN -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STMN +6 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -0.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -1.5 (-7.5) | 140.3 (+5.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -0.9 (-6.9) | 142.5 (+3.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -1.4 (-7.4) | 143.4 (+2.6) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -2.1 (-8.1) | 142.9 (+3.1) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2023 | STMN 54 – 53 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-12 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#227) | 1.3 (#153) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#328) | 0.53 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#304) | 0.18 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.354 (#353) | 0.510 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | STMN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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