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Baseline Tuned — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
3–2 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
5 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Howard
@
VCU
|
+12.6 | 136.2 | 87% | 60–70 | ✓ |
Massachusetts
@
Hofstra
|
+0.2 | 145.2 | 48% | 71–56 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
Minnesota
|
-9.0 | 126.0 | 17% | 69–51 | ✓ |
Saint Francis
@
Hawai'i
|
+12.9 | 137.5 | 86% | 66–90 | ✓ |
Sacred Heart
@
Stony Brook
|
-3.3 | 137.9 | 32% | 64–71 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.