Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | VCU -2500 HOW +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -17.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -12.7 (-2.7) | 134.9 (-4.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -16.0 (-6.0) | 134.3 (-4.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -12.6 (-2.6) | 136.2 (-6.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -13.6 (-3.6) | 135.3 (-5.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-3 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#175) | -11.8 (#339) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#135) | -1.21 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#139) | -2.20 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#150) | 0.428 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 46.4% |
| TOV% | 22.7% | 21.8% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 37.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 57.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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