Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -2000 SFPA +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +24 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -17.4 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -13.7 (+10.3) | 136.2 (+19.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -14.2 (+9.8) | 138.2 (+17.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -12.9 (+11.1) | 137.5 (+18.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -13.2 (+10.8) | 137.4 (+18.6) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#157) | -11.1 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#208) | -2.77 (#345) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#162) | -3.53 (#339) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#209) | 0.397 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | SFPA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.