Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MD +196 TENN -240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +3 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | TENN -7.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -4.1 (+1.1) | 129.9 (-20.9) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -5.5 (+2.5) | 130.7 (-21.7) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -4.9 (+1.9) | 132.8 (-23.8) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -4.3 (+1.3) | 132.2 (-23.2) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 57.9 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#21) | 21.2 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.11 (#10) | 2.77 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.54 (#8) | 3.74 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#16) | 0.626 (#23) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 34.1% | 40.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 32.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 37.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 28.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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