Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | NU -2000 PV +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +10 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | NU -12.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -12.2 (-2.2) | 131.6 (-19.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -14.2 (-4.2) | 129.0 (-17.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -10.8 (-0.8) | 131.1 (-19.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -12.2 (-2.2) | 130.7 (-18.7) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-5 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#75) | -1.1 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#55) | -0.67 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#60) | -0.33 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#55) | 0.451 (#249) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 40.8% |
Game Analysis
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