Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | IONA -275 SBU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IONA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +15 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | IONA -10.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (-6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -6.4 (+8.6) | 139.8 (-10.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -5.7 (+9.3) | 137.0 (-8.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -6.3 (+8.7) | 137.8 (-8.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -6.3 (+8.7) | 138.3 (-9.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IONA | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-4 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 8-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#30) | 1.9 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.39 (#79) | 0.16 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#81) | 0.32 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#68) | 0.506 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IONA | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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