Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +37 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -26.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 118.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -23.9 (+13.1) | 128.6 (-11.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -23.2 (+13.8) | 128.2 (-11.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -21.0 (+16.0) | 129.6 (-12.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -22.0 (+15.0) | 124.6 (-7.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 6-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#40) | -11.1 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#23) | -2.55 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#23) | -4.42 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#38) | 0.391 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 15.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.9% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.2% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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