Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | MOST -225 PFW +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +4 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MOST -7.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 121.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -5.8 (-9.8) | 131.6 (-5.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -7.4 (-11.4) | 132.5 (-6.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -5.0 (-9.0) | 132.0 (-6.0) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -4.7 (-8.7) | 131.3 (-5.3) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#147) | -0.5 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#195) | 0.22 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#164) | 0.43 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#203) | 0.491 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 79.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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