Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ND +100 MARQ -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +15 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -4.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -3.3 (-11.7) | 146.4 (-3.4) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -1.6 (-13.4) | 147.3 (-4.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -2.3 (-12.7) | 149.9 (-6.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -2.4 (-12.6) | 149.3 (-6.3) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2023 | MARQ 78 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-8 | 16-1 |
| Away | 0-10 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#142) | 12.1 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#135) | 1.56 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#117) | 2.72 (#45) |
| RPI | 0.560 (#87) | 0.572 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 22.8% |
| DRB% | 78.1% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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