Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -700 UNCA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +23 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -6.4 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -6.2 (+16.8) | 141.9 (-6.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -7.7 (+15.3) | 137.4 (-2.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -4.4 (+18.6) | 142.1 (-7.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -4.2 (+18.8) | 142.5 (-7.5) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#171) | -0.6 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#246) | -0.07 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#229) | -0.51 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#204) | 0.466 (#231) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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