Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MEM +100 AUB -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MEM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +9 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -2.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.2 (+26.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -1.0 (+8.0) | 133.1 (+21.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -0.8 (+8.2) | 132.6 (+22.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -0.2 (+9.2) | 132.2 (+22.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -0.1 (+9.1) | 135.5 (+19.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | AUB 90 – 76 MEM |
| Dec 12, 2020 | AUB 74 – 71 MEM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MEM | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#55) | 10.7 (#36) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.80 (#57) | 3.64 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.25 (#30) | 4.72 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#43) | 0.678 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MEM | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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