Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UK -1200 YALE +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +10 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | UK -6.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -7.0 (+3.0) | 140.7 (-12.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -8.2 (+1.8) | 138.7 (-10.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -7.8 (+2.2) | 138.2 (-10.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -7.4 (+2.6) | 139.0 (-11.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-4 |
| Home | 14-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-4 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#29) | 10.7 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#78) | 1.14 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#78) | 1.56 (#96) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#118) | 0.530 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 44.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 79.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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