Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +300 TULN -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +25 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | TULN -0.8 (-24.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -0.8 (-24.2) | 154.6 (-3.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -0.4 (-24.6) | 153.0 (-2.0) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -0.5 (-25.5) | 153.5 (-2.5) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -0.4 (-25.4) | 152.2 (-1.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#197) | 0.0 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#184) | -0.21 (#202) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#184) | -0.16 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#133) | 0.474 (#216) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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