Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -30.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -8000 UMES +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +27 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -27.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -24.7 (+2.3) | 133.3 (+3.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -25.9 (+1.1) | 132.4 (+4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -22.5 (+4.5) | 134.1 (+2.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -24.1 (+2.9) | 134.1 (+2.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-5 |
| Home | 16-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 14.1 (#14) | -8.2 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#17) | -0.63 (#237) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#16) | -0.96 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.656 (#7) | 0.492 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 37.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 43.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 39.9% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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