Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -900 TNTC +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +23 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -17.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (+4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -12.7 (+10.3) | 144.0 (+7.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -13.7 (+9.3) | 141.4 (+9.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -13.5 (+9.5) | 147.2 (+3.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -13.4 (+9.6) | 147.2 (+3.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 11, 2021 | TROY 75 – 72 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#87) | -6.7 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#150) | -2.29 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#116) | -3.07 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#170) | 0.430 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.6% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.