Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -8.9 (-11.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -5.6 (-8.6) | 144.3 (+2.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -4.8 (-7.8) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -5.2 (-8.2) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -5.6 (-8.6) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | TROY 87 – 64 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 7-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#217) | -6.1 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#277) | -1.38 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#262) | -2.10 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#299) | 0.408 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.