Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -2500 UTSA +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +18 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -24.4 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -20.2 (-2.2) | 144.3 (+25.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -20.0 (-2.0) | 150.4 (+19.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -19.3 (-1.3) | 146.7 (+23.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -20.5 (-2.5) | 145.6 (+24.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-16 |
| Home | 15-5 | 8-10 |
| Away | 5-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#41) | -8.8 (#318) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#7) | -1.29 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.25 (#5) | -1.13 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.609 (#40) | 0.396 (#319) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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