Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UCLA -4000 DEN +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +23 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UCLA -23.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -23.3 (-0.3) | 149.7 (+1.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -24.2 (-1.2) | 149.6 (+1.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -19.5 (+3.5) | 153.2 (-2.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -20.7 (+2.3) | 153.1 (-2.1) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-6 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-0 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.7 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 16.7 (#7) | -1.4 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#70) | 0.04 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#63) | -0.45 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#76) | 0.436 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 52.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.52 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 17.4% | 35.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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