Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -125 SIUE +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | SIUE -3.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIUE -2.5 (+8.5) | 137.3 (+10.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIUE -0.4 (+6.4) | 138.4 (+9.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIUE -1.3 (+7.3) | 138.1 (+9.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SIUE -2.4 (+8.4) | 138.3 (+9.7) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#262) | 3.2 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#259) | 0.89 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#272) | 1.33 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#256) | 0.527 (#136) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | SIUE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 31.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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