Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -350 MORG +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -5.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.9 (+6.1) | 147.5 (-9.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.1 (+5.9) | 150.2 (-12.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -5.8 (+6.2) | 151.7 (-13.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.8 (+5.2) | 151.3 (-13.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2025 | UMBC 81 – 79 MORG |
| Nov 27, 2024 | UMBC 92 – 69 MORG |
| Dec 6, 2023 | MORG 92 – 80 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#221) | -2.7 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#204) | -0.66 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#197) | -1.96 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#254) | 0.441 (#265) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 57.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 38.0% |
Game Analysis
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