Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | MORG +160 UMBC -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -10.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -2.8 (-4.8) | 147.3 (+12.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -4.3 (-6.3) | 149.2 (+10.8) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -1.1 (-3.1) | 145.8 (+14.2) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | UMBC 92 – 69 MORG |
| Dec 6, 2023 | MORG 92 – 80 UMBC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UMBC 75 – 63 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 14-2 |
| Home | 9-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 75.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#110) | 6.8 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#176) | -0.35 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#172) | -0.39 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.750 (#29) | 0.500 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 42.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.50 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 13.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 56.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.1% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 65.0% | 76.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 41.5% | 37.3% |
Game Analysis
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