Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -330 MORG +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +23 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -5.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.0 (+18.0) | 149.1 (+11.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.1 (+16.9) | 148.5 (+12.5) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -5.3 (+17.7) | 149.0 (+12.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.1 (+16.9) | 151.8 (+9.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2025 | UMBC 81 – 79 MORG |
| Dec 6, 2023 | MORG 92 – 80 UMBC |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UMBC 75 – 63 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-7 |
| Home | 8-9 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 82.8 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#333) | -9.4 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#347) | -3.22 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.75 (#334) | -5.01 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.319 (#356) | 0.308 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 64.9% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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