Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | MORG +188 UMBC -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MORG +12 | 172 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -1.9 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.5 (+0.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.5 (+13.5) | 155.1 (+16.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -1.3 (+13.3) | 157.7 (+14.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -0.8 (+12.8) | 156.9 (+15.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -0.0 (+12.0) | 157.9 (+14.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 11, 2025 | UMBC 81 – 79 MORG |
| Nov 27, 2024 | UMBC 92 – 69 MORG |
| Dec 10, 2022 | UMBC 75 – 63 MORG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 6-9 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -15.8 (#357) | -8.1 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.64 (#356) | -1.70 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.64 (#348) | -2.69 (#309) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#331) | 0.357 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 13.9% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.7% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 59.6% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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