Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SJU -2500 UNH +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +13 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -20.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (-33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -17.5 (-4.5) | 145.7 (-30.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -19.4 (-6.4) | 144.0 (-29.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -16.7 (-3.7) | 147.0 (-32.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -17.9 (-4.9) | 146.0 (-31.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#62) | -7.6 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#35) | -1.71 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.03 (#38) | -2.45 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#79) | 0.417 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 35.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 42.6 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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