Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | URI -275 ARMY +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | URI -5.1 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+0.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -3.2 (+6.8) | 140.8 (+3.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -4.8 (+5.2) | 136.9 (+7.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -3.4 (+6.6) | 140.2 (+3.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -3.5 (+6.5) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#286) | -6.1 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#327) | -1.39 (#294) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#302) | -1.93 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#310) | 0.395 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 27.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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