Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -700 OMA +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +28 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -11.1 (+16.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -9.0 (+19.0) | 141.9 (-5.9) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -8.8 (+19.2) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -8.8 (+19.2) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -13.1 (+14.9) | 141.4 (-5.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2024 | MTST 76 – 65 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-1 | 5-7 |
| Away | 10-5 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 0.6 (#169) | -5.2 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#151) | -0.54 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#144) | -0.68 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#182) | 0.504 (#174) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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