Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits
Omaha Mavericks
65 76
FINAL Big Sky-Summit Challenge
Montana State Bobcats
Baxter Arena · December 5, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MTST -4.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money OMA +160 / MTST -190
Model Predictions
Spread Total OMA win
Actual MTST +11 141 Lost
Massey MTST -4.0 (-7.0)
Massey Totals 144.4 (-3.4)
Bradley-Terry 46%
Weighted B-T 12%
Baseline Plus ML MTST -2.8 (-8.2) 142.6 (-1.6) 40%
Baseline ML MTST -3.3 (-7.7) 142.5 (-1.5) 35%
Baseline Tuned ML MTST -3.3 (-7.7) 140.9 (+0.1) 37%
Efficiency Plus ML MTST -4.0 (-7.0) 140.8 (+0.2) 33%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 10, 2022 MTST 8254 OMA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings OMA MTST
Overall 22-13 15-18
Conference 13-3 9-9
Home 11-2 11-3
Away 7-9 3-14
Neutral 4-2 1-1
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 77.0 70.7
Avg Pts Against 76.2 70.7
Massey -6.5 (#293) 2.5 (#128)
Bradley-Terry -2.10 (#323) -1.03 (#267)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.47 (#336) -0.48 (#200)
RPI 0.384 (#331) 0.462 (#241)
Shooting & Four Factors OMA MTST
FG% 41.4% 44.9%
3PT% 35.5% 37.6%
REB / G 35.5 32.6
OREB / G 10.2 8.1
AST / TO 0.99 1.20
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.1% 53.8%
TOV% 18.3% 17.4%
ORB% 28.9% 24.3%
FT Rate 25.7% 21.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.1% 48.5%
Opp TOV% 15.0% 17.5%
DRB% 73.2% 71.5%
Opp FT Rate 23.8% 28.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.