Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | BELL +130 MUR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BELL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BELL +11 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -0.8 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (-6.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -2.2 (+13.2) | 130.5 (-3.5) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -2.1 (+13.1) | 135.4 (-8.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -3.1 (+14.1) | 134.7 (-7.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -2.5 (+13.5) | 133.1 (-6.1) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | MUR 81 – 68 BELL |
| Nov 14, 2021 | MUR 78 – 59 BELL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BELL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-12 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#236) | 2.4 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.67 (#306) | 0.98 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.35 (#331) | 1.41 (#102) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#217) | 0.552 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BELL | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 26.6 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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