Betting Lines
| Spread | UML -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UML -2000 SFBK +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UML win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +9 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | UML -26.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UML -21.6 (-12.6) | 140.3 (-13.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UML -19.3 (-10.3) | 137.4 (-10.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UML -21.3 (-12.3) | 140.3 (-13.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UML -23.4 (-14.4) | 139.2 (-12.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UML | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 17-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 9-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#52) | -12.2 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#18) | -1.47 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.28 (#27) | -2.29 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#80) | 0.414 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UML | SFBK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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