Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 120.5 Over |
| Money | AF -250 ARST +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | AF -9.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -8.6 (+16.4) | 126.1 (+8.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -6.6 (+18.4) | 124.3 (+10.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -8.4 (+16.6) | 126.8 (+8.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -8.2 (+16.8) | 126.1 (+8.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2021 | ARST 68 – 46 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-9 | 10-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#192) | -4.6 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#245) | -1.61 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#243) | -2.16 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#299) | 0.391 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 23.6% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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