Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +22 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -1.8 (+20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -3.7 (+18.3) | 130.9 (-16.9) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -4.9 (+17.1) | 126.2 (-12.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -3.1 (+18.9) | 133.6 (-19.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -2.7 (+19.3) | 134.6 (-20.6) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | AF 80 – 55 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 11-18 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 4-13 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 59.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 66.0 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#268) | -2.7 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#163) | 0.65 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#193) | 0.32 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#213) | 0.485 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 28.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 5.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 19.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 44.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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