Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | HOU -400 ALA +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +6 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -12.2 (-18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -10.5 (-16.5) | 134.1 (+1.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -11.9 (-17.9) | 135.1 (+0.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -11.6 (-17.6) | 135.3 (+0.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -10.5 (-16.5) | 133.6 (+2.4) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 27, 2024 | ALA 85 – 80 HOU |
| Dec 12, 2021 | ALA 83 – 82 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 16-2 |
| Home | 16-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 11-0 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 23.5 (#1) | 16.5 (#9) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#8) | 3.14 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.03 (#6) | 4.44 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#19) | 0.641 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 50.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 16.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 40.1% | 40.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.2% | 41.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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