We live on blood / We are Sparta F.C "Theme from Sparta FC" - The Fall
Fertitta Center · December 10, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread HOU -8.5 Away covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money HOU -400 / ALA +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total HOU win
Actual ALA +6 136 Lost
Massey HOU -12.2 (-18.2)
Massey Totals 132.0 (+4.0)
Bradley-Terry 81%
Weighted B-T 86%
Baseline Plus ML HOU -10.5 (-16.5) 134.1 (+1.9) 73%
Baseline ML HOU -11.9 (-17.9) 135.1 (+0.9) 70%
Baseline Tuned ML HOU -11.6 (-17.6) 135.3 (+0.7) 80%
Efficiency Plus ML HOU -10.5 (-16.5) 133.6 (+2.4) 66%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 27, 2024 ALA 8580 HOU
Dec 12, 2021 ALA 8382 HOU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings HOU ALA
Overall 33-4 31-6
Conference 17-1 16-2
Home 16-2 15-0
Away 11-0 9-3
Neutral 6-2 7-3
Last 5 5-0 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.9 81.8
Avg Pts Against 57.5 68.3
Massey 23.5 (#1) 16.5 (#9)
Bradley-Terry 3.54 (#8) 3.14 (#11)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.03 (#6) 4.44 (#11)
RPI 0.633 (#19) 0.641 (#17)
Shooting & Four Factors HOU ALA
FG% 46.8% 42.4%
3PT% 34.0% 35.1%
REB / G 40.4 50.2
OREB / G 14.0 16.8
AST / TO 1.43 0.98
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.8% 50.7%
TOV% 15.9% 21.4%
ORB% 40.1% 40.1%
FT Rate 16.7% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 36.2% 41.1%
Opp TOV% 26.1% 16.3%
DRB% 69.8% 74.7%
Opp FT Rate 19.7% 22.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.