Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -185 ALA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +5 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -4.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -3.2 (-8.2) | 146.5 (+18.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -2.3 (-7.3) | 146.4 (+18.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -3.2 (-8.2) | 142.2 (+22.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -3.0 (-8.0) | 141.4 (+23.6) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 10, 2022 | ALA 71 – 65 HOU |
| Dec 12, 2021 | ALA 83 – 82 HOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-5 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 19-1 | 13-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 12-3 |
| Away | 10-0 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 9-4 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 90.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.6 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 21.9 (#5) | 17.1 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#94) | 2.27 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#74) | 3.58 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#102) | 0.729 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 49.0% |
| 3PT% | 48.8% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 12.3% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.6% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.2% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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