Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -1400 CAN +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -14.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.6 (-29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -13.5 (-12.5) | 156.8 (-19.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -14.4 (-13.4) | 154.8 (-17.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -12.2 (-11.2) | 155.6 (-18.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -13.0 (-12.0) | 157.1 (-20.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 10-4 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.9 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 73.0 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#109) | -5.5 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#156) | -1.47 (#296) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#166) | -1.46 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#145) | 0.434 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | CAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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