All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
The Nest · December 10, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread LBSU -1.5 Home covered
O/U 142.5 Over
Money SAC +120 / LBSU -120
Model Predictions
Spread Total SAC win
Actual SAC +2 150 Won
Massey SAC -4.2 (-2.2) — —
Massey Totals — 145.1 (+4.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 70% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 62% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ SAC -1.0 (+1.0) 143.5 (+6.5) 62% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML SAC -3.1 (-1.1) 146.0 (+4.0) 66% ✓
Baseline ML SAC -3.0 (-1.0) 145.3 (+4.7) 70% ✓
Baseline Plus ML SAC -3.1 (-1.1) 144.0 (+6.0) 65% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 3, 2023 LBSU 83 – 73 SAC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SAC LBSU
Overall 14-18 17-16
Conference 7-11 11-9
Home 9-4 9-5
Away 5-10 6-9
Neutral 0-4 2-2
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 66.1 75.6
Avg Pts Against 69.2 75.7
Massey -1.4 (#204) -0.3 (#190)
Bradley-Terry -0.16 (#200) 0.04 (#175)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.31 (#205) 0.42 (#152)
RPI 0.531 (#130) 0.480 (#211)
Shooting & Four Factors SAC LBSU
FG% 44.8% 44.7%
3PT% 37.0% 32.0%
REB / G 33.9 37.0
OREB / G 10.6 11.0
AST / TO 0.92 1.00
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.1% 48.6%
TOV% 21.1% 19.5%
ORB% 31.1% 30.4%
FT Rate 21.7% 16.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.4% 48.5%
Opp TOV% 15.1% 20.3%
DRB% 70.5% 67.4%
Opp FT Rate 18.5% 22.7%

Game Analysis

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