Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | PITT -1200 SHU +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PITT +25 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | PITT -16.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -15.0 (+10.0) | 145.9 (+11.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -13.5 (+11.5) | 145.0 (+12.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -15.6 (+9.4) | 145.3 (+11.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -14.0 (+11.0) | 144.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 8-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#86) | -5.6 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#113) | -0.79 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#82) | -1.47 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#119) | 0.414 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | SHU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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