Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | PROV -10000 UALB +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +38 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -18.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -17.6 (+20.4) | 148.9 (-0.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -19.4 (+18.6) | 146.4 (+1.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -17.2 (+20.8) | 149.8 (-1.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -17.8 (+20.2) | 148.8 (-0.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#97) | -9.1 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#135) | -2.12 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#124) | -2.95 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#178) | 0.420 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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