Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -200 SPU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +16 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -6.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -3.6 (+12.4) | 137.1 (-7.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -3.2 (+12.8) | 135.7 (-5.7) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -4.0 (+12.0) | 139.7 (-9.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -4.0 (+12.0) | 140.0 (-10.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 60.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 65.5 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#278) | -7.4 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#312) | -1.39 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#318) | -1.75 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#291) | 0.378 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 39.0% |
Game Analysis
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